Showing posts with label GOP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GOP. Show all posts

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Hoist With Their Own Ultrasound Probe…


This is a story about abortion politics, political correctness, and principle, or the lack thereof…
The Virginia legislature recently passed a bill. As with most legislation, the actual history is somewhat complicated. In the House, Republican delegate Mark Cole introduced HB 261. It was subsequently amended by HB 462. Sister legislation in the Senate, SB 484, was simultaneously introduced by Republican Jill Holtzman Vogel. These bills sought to mandate that every woman, prior to undergoing an elective abortion, obtain an ultrasound (US) to determine fetal age.
This kind of Nanny State tinkering, the micromanaging of health care provision, could be opposed on many grounds. For example, it could be opposed by traditional conservatives for involving the State in physician/patient relationships; it could be opposed by fiscal hawks for unnecessarily adding to the cost of medical care. It could be opposed by libertarians on the grounds the State has no role in women’s choices about their own body, to say nothing about doctors’ choices in how they offer services.
But the political Left got their marching orders, it seems, because the widest opposition came from liberals screaming that evil conservative legislators were forcing women to have their intimate parts probed prior to being allowed their right to an abortion.
For example, Democratic Virginia delegate David Englin released the following statement in response the same day the House of Delegates gave preliminary approval to House Bill 462:
“This bill will require many women in Virginia to undergo vaginal penetration with an ultrasound probe against their consent in order to exercise their constitutional right to an abortion...only an invasive transvaginal probe ultrasound can effectively determine gestation age during much of the first trimester, which is when most abortions occur.” It turns out the claim that ONLY a transvaginal US “can effectively determine gestation age during MUCH of the first trimester” is simply false.
This allegation was picked up by both Lizz Winstead of The Guardian and Slate.com’s legal analyst Dahlia Lithwick:
The Guardian: “When this story broke, I had so many questions. The immediate ones seemed so basic. I wondered why [VA GOP Governor] Bob McDonnell is so cruel. I wondered why Bob McDonnell felt he had the legal authority to force doctors to rape their patients.”
Slate.com: “This week, the Virginia state Legislature passed a bill that would require women to have an ultrasound before they may have an abortion. Because the great majority of abortions occur during the first 12 weeks, that means most women will be forced to have a transvaginal procedure, in which a probe is inserted into the vagina, and then moved around until an ultrasound image is produced.” For the whole piece, go here.
So you get the picture, if not the actual US image: ”require vaginal penetration...with an ultrasound probe,” “forced to have a transvaginal procedure,” “legal authority to force doctors to rape their patients.” The Left is never accused of subtlety.
Here’s the actual pertinent excerpt of HB 261:
§ 18.2-76B:  Except in the case of a medical emergency, at least 48 hours before the performance of an abortion, a licensed physician or a qualified medical professional working under the direct supervision of a licensed physician shall perform a limited ultrasound examination on the patient undergoing the abortion to confirm the presence of a viable intrauterine pregnancy
HB 462 amended the above, to add in relevant part: The ultrasound image shall be made pursuant to standard medical practice in the community, contain the dimensions of the fetus, and accurately portray the presence of external members and internal organs of the fetus, if present or viewable. Determination of gestational age shall be based upon measurement of the fetus in a manner consistent with standard medical practice in the community in determining gestational age. When only the gestational sac is visible during ultrasound imaging, gestational age may be based upon measurement of the gestational sac.
Note the word “transvaginal” does not appear. No detail is mandated on how the US must be performed, beyond saying it must be consistent with standard medical practice, something any doctor not wishing malpractice suits does as a matter of course. Meanwhile the legislation DOES use the word “limited” to describe the US procedure. That would tend to speak against including TVS, since fetal US begins with TAS, adding TVS only as needed.


A medical imaging aside: there are two ways to perform a fetal US. 

•By slapping “jelly” and the probe on the patient’s pregnant belly, called a transabdominal sonogram (TAS), or..
•By placing a specially designed condom-covered US probe into the vaginal canal and imaging from the cervix into the uterus--called a transvaginal sonogram (TVS). 

US images are better (have a higher spatial resolution) the closer the probe is to the area of interest, so TVS works better in some circumstances, TAS in others. In mid second-trimester pregnancy, when most women are imaged during routine OB evaluations (and therefore what the Virginia legislators likely, though incorrectly, had in mind), fetal parts are closer to the abdominal wall, and so TAS is often all that is needed. In early pregnancy, TVS is often better. For example, TVS can detect the gestational sac that will house the pregnancy by 4.5 weeks (measured from last menstrual period, or LMP) while TAS may take as long as 6 weeks, a 10 day difference
Here’s the intellectual error: In the context of a fetal US in early pregnancy desired by both patient and doctor, not coerced by the State, a vaginal probe is often helpful, and thus often (not always) used. From that medical fact Winstead, Lithwick, Englin and others leap unwarrantedly to the assumption that a doctor, attempting to comply with the law, with a patient who doesn’t desire a vaginal probe, has no other option than to force compliance on the patient. That’s simply false.



As a matter of routine US imaging protocol, in keeping with the laws against battery, women are of course free at any time to refuse a TVS, even when the doctor advises it may be helpful. For the sole purpose of assessing gestational age (the alleged point of the legislation), this might at most demand a 10 day wait and repeat US. On reading the proposed legislation, nothing is mentioned regarding HOW the US is performed. So the claim the legislation mandates an invasive US is clearly a stretch, albeit a politically savvy one. 
As a practical matter, this legislation doesn’t even require a repeat US in 10 days; for women who know their LMP, and schedule a visit to arrange an abortion, it simply means the first visit will be scheduled 10 days later than would otherwise be the case.
We can say even more. For there is a short period of a week or two in early gestation when TAS shows only the gestational sac, the fluid-containing structure in which the fetus will grow and develop, while the more sensitive TVS will show not only the gestational sac but also, within it, the smaller fetus. One measurement of gestational age is the sac diameter. Another is the fetal length. Note the legislation states: “When only the gestational sac is visible during ultrasound imaging, gestational age may be based upon measurement of the gestational sac.” It doesn’t say, “when only the gestational sac is visible, a more invasive US method is mandated to assess fetal length.” Thus it is clear this proposed legislation is being twisted for reasons of political rhetoric.
Some conservatives, apparently just back from watching a Mad Men marathon, have made the unfortunate claim they find it unusual for a woman to object to an US probe being placed in the same area she desires a suction device be placed in the near future. Englin alleges a “conversation with a GOP lawmaker who told him that women had already made the decision to be ‘vaginally penetrated when they got pregnant.’”  Of course, the Left is right that it is the preference of the woman, or the patient, that distinguishes rape from lovemaking, and battery from a simple and routine imaging procedure.
Nonetheless, there will be a price to pay for the Left’s insistence in painting this story as one of metaphorical Republican rape. Their vitriolic rhetoric makes it sound as if this was the INTENT of the Virginia legislature. A February 22nd Washington Post article quotes the female Senate author of SB 484 explaining “she did not realize that the ultrasound would not be external [and] was shocked to find TVS might be used.” According to the Post article, “McDonnell, Virginia Republicans back off mandatory invasive ultrasounds,” by Anita Kumar and Laura Vozzella, “Many lawmakers did not understand that at the young fetal age abortions usually occur, the invasive vaginal ultrasound would be needed to establish gestational age, as required by the bill.” This is technically wrong in the sense that there are other alternatives, like waiting a week, but, again, makes it clear the legislators were not intent on “raping” their constituents. This shows the lie in the claims on the Left that the legislation MANDATED TVS. And there’s the problem…
For the fact is, if you support abortion rights and oppose State intervention in the doctor-patient relationship, you should be equally opposed to TAS mandates. Laying an US probe on the patient’s abdomen is also battery if the patient doesn’t want it.
More importantly, the article notes the Republicans are now working to modify the legislation so that it will still mandate a fetal US prior to abortion, but will clarify that nothing in the legislation mandates it be done transvaginally. As Kumar and Vozzella put it, “Republican lawmakers on Wednesday in essence said that an abdominal — or ‘jelly-on-the-belly‘ — ultrasound before an abortion would still be required but that vaginal ultrasounds would be voluntary. “
And at that point, the Right will have won. The Left, having protested only the “intimate” nature of the mandate, will have no principled reason for continued opposition...they will have been hoist, so to speak, with their own US probe.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Breaking News! Gingrich Endorses Romney!!


At least that’s how it seems to me. Follow my logic…
After the drubbing Newt gave Mitt in South Carolina, Romney is fighting back. He has called Gingrich a “lobbyist” for raking in millions selling Congressional influence to those running Freddie Mac. And that might spell trouble as a vast majority of Republican primary-goers hold Freddie and Fannie responsible for the economic melt down that has crushed the housing market. It’s not that unreasonable a belief.
Gingrich’s response? On ABC's Good Morning America today, he said, "I did no lobbying. Period. He keeps using the word ‘lobbyist’ because I'm sure his consultants tell him it scores well. It's not true. He KNOWS it's not true. He's deliberately saying things he knows to be false." And Newt is understandably concerned Romney’s wealth and establishment ties may make this a SUCCESSFUL lie.
So, to sum up: Newt Gingrich says that Mitt Romney is speaking out on an important issue of the day by knowingly lying to the American people, and may, in view of his wealth and connections, get away with it.
That sounds like an endorsement for President to me. Lying and getting away with it are what make our greatest Presidents. They are the key requirements for the job.
 Rich establishment white guys who lie to the public with at least initial impunity. I’m thinking JFK and the Bay of Pigs. I’m thinking LBJ and the Tonkin Gulf. I’m thinking George W. Bush and weapons of mass destruction. I’m even thinking Bill Clinton and if it weren’t for that dress...And now, due to Newt, I’m thinking Mitt Romney and isn’t Newt a lobbyist, c’mon, really?. Granted, compared to the Bay of Pigs and WMDs, it’s a paltry issue, but the man’s not President YET. 
Newt agrees Mitt has all the characteristics of a successful President: wealth, connections, and--most importantly--the ability to look straight into the eyes of the American people, and lie to their faces, and get away with it. Endorsements just don’t come stronger than that.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

The GOP Visits A Psychiatrist…

Fools are my theme, let satire be my song. 
Lord Byron 


A tired appearing older gentleman enters a psychiatrist’s office; he is white, well-dressed but strangely carries a few straws of chewing straw in his breast pocket; he holds a bible in one hand and a copy of Free to Choose in the other; he presents  with an uncomfortable affect and a patrician air...
Psychiatrist: Hello..GOP is it? Glad to meet you. Thanks for coming in to see me.
GOP: [Nervous tick, speaking hesitantly]: Yes, yes...glad to meet you as well. Are we done yet?
P: Not quite yet. I see you were referred by a Dr. Paul. It says here he’s a gynecologist?
GOP: He sees my wife. After her last visit, which I attended, he thought I should meet with you.
P: Do you know why that was?
GOP: I wanted her to stay home, barefoot and pregnant, and school the children and clean the house while supporting her desire to rise as far as she could in the business world...
P: What about the glass ceilings?
GOP: She should clean those too...
P: I see...Tell me, where do you live?
GOP: In a big tent.
P: Ah...OH! I see Dr. Paul was concerned about multiple personality disorder…
GOP: Yes, exactly. I don’t know what he’s talking about. Can you help me?
P: I’ll need a little more information, first. What do you see as the problem?
GOP: The budget. And the debt. The budget and debt! We need to take the budget seriously. The debt is growing out of control.
P: So you’re willing to look at cutting everything?
GOP: Well not the military, of course. That can't be cut! Defense is paramount!! 
P: So none of the troops in over 100 countries abroad can come home?
GOP: Not a one! Too risky. Wouldn't be prudent. Like Vice-President Cheney said after 9/11, we must act as if a 1% chance of a danger from abroad is equivalent to a 100% danger. We can’t afford any risk.
P: Isn’t that the Precautionary Principle the Left uses when discussing global warming. We can’t risk even a small chance of irreparably harming the planet…?
GOP: They’re completely different!
P: How so?
GOP: Well, in the case of global warming, the alleged science is discovered by scientists whose grant money is supplied by the taxpayers. They don’t get tax dollars to play with unless they claim the science shows global warming. Whereas, when it comes to discovery of foreign threats, taxpayers pay high-ranking military officials and State department officials who work to find foreign threats, aided by public spirited companies in the defense industry that help us in this never-ending fight.
P: American troops garrisoned in foreign lands...That’s also to protect us?
GOP: Sure. They want us there. It’s protective.
P: And if foreign troops were garrisoned in America?
GOP: Are you insane? We don’t want them here. That would be inflammatory.
P: You believe in a small, modest, Constitutionally limited government…
GOP: Just like Jefferson's!
P: ...capable of policing the world and fighting multiple foreign wars simultaneously?
GOP: Only much, much larger! [Facial grimace…] Can you help me?
P: What about domestic policy?
GOP: We want to keep the government out of your business. Regulatory growth has been explosive, and harmful. This must stop, and stop now!
P: So you’re willing to get the government off the backs of the marijuana entrepreneurs?
GOP: Absolutely NOT! It’s a gateway drug that causes much harm!
P: And your solution to the harm of using drugs?
GOP: We have to throw the users in prison.

P: Can’t you just leave the users alone?
GOP: Don’t be ridiculous. It’s not like they’re businessmen…
P: But how does favoring small government tie in with a drug war?
GOP: Well, when we put all the marijuana users in prison, we won’t need a big government to handle the remaining citizens. [Rapid eye movement…] Please, can you help me?!
P: So you’re for less government…
GOP: Yes!
P: ...that controls what people smoke and eat…
GOP: Well, not tobacco or trans-fats! That nanny-state stuff won’t fly with me!!
P: But you’ve used marijuana yourself, I understand…
GOP: Just during my youthful experimentations...Hey, you can’t hold that against a guy!
P: But now you want to…
GOP: Lock them up and throw away the key. Exactly!! Can you help me?
P: I understand you favor federalism.
GOP: Absolutely. It keeps the federal government in check and allows the states to be laboratories for liberty.
P: So if marijuana were legalized at the state level, for medical or other reasons…
GOP: I’d have the DEA dragnet large areas to round up people for federal prosecution.
P: And if judicial rulings went against you?
GOP: Damn activist judges! They need to rule based on the laws Congress passes, not on what they wish the law were. That’s what democracy is all about.
P: What’s your position on Obamacare?
GOP: Very destructive; hopefully it will be overturned by the courts. [Unconscious toe tapping…] Please dear God, can you help me?!
P: Just a few more questions. Tell me about spending under Obama.
GOP: Outrageous! Huge deficits. Massive bailouts and reckless stimulus spending. 
P: And the bailouts and stimulus spending under GW Bush?
GOP: What?
P: The massive spending--the most ever until Obama--under Bush 43?
GOP: Yes?
P: I’m asking your thoughts about it…
GOP: What about it?
P: Your thoughts on the massive spending and deficits…
GOP: This massive spending and deficit growth under Obama is killing the country!!
P: And under Bush?
GOP: I’m sorry, what is your question? MY GOD! HELP ME!!
P: I’m beginning to see your problem.
GOP: What problem?
P: Let me ask you, how do you feel about choice?
GOP: Choice! That's anathema. This abortion choice culture has deadened our society and created irreparable harm. I blame the liberals.
P: I was talking about school choice…
GOP: Choice! That's a saving grace. The culture of school choice has enlivened our society and created great benefits. Without it, generations of children are deprived of an education to favor special interests that hold the Democratic Party in thrall. I blame the liberals.
P: OK. I’ve got enough. I think I can help you.
GOP: Electroshock? 
P: We can’t turn the voltage up high enough, I’m afraid. But don’t despair. There are other methods…have you heard of leeches?
GOP: Congress is full of them.
P: That’s what you need. You won’t be able to accomplish your goals without them.
GOP: You mean I need…
P: Massive blood-letting. Yes.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Experience




A strange claim made the rounds just over a year ago in the run-up to the 2010 elections. Made by incumbents, the argument asserted many candidates running for the first time were “not qualified” for office. Since this argument may well resurface with Tea party supported candidates later this year, I think it worth analyzing. The question is: what qualifies a person to be a Congressman?

We already have incumbents sitting on finance committees who have no background in accounting, economics, or finance. We already have Congressmen working on committees impacting the troops or American foreign policy who have not previously studied world history, military theory, diplomacy, or even been overseas. We have Congressmen who blithely claim their actions are constitutional without benefit of a law degree or deep knowledge of Constitutional theory or history. We have members who micromanage healthcare decisions for the American public who have neither medical degrees nor published papers in the healthcare economics literature.  So where is this necessity for experience when so many of the incumbents seems personally satisfied with on-the-job training?
How much experience does one need to vote on bills without reading them, as most sitting members do? 
In 2010, throughout the country, dozens of anti-incumbent ads talked about Democratic incumbents who “vote 99% of the time with Nancy Pelosi.” How much experience is required to simply do what one is told? The same 99% figure won’t be used with regard to current House Speaker, John Boehner, since the Tea Party GOP freshmen are, for the first time in a long time, standing up even to their own party structure. Many Americans think that is a good thing, but it is likely harmed by “experience,” and certainly experience is not a pre-requisite.
Might a principled commitment to less government substitute for experience? After all, one does not need to be an expert in the automotive industry to determine the Constitution affords no grounds for the government to run it.
It was argued last cycle in Delaware we just can’t vote for someone who claims she was once a witch. Yet for years we’ve voted for incumbents who seem to think they are wizards…

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Why Did Ron Paul Come in Third in Iowa?

With 99% of the caucus vote reported, Ron Paul came in third at 21% compared to 25% each for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. (At least, that’s how it’s being reported by most media; when you look at the actual numbers, that 25% each for Romney and Santorum is actually 24.5% each, and Paul’s 21% is really 21.4%. So he’s 3.1% behind them, not 4%. Funny, when I was in school we were taught that 24.5 percent is rounded to 24%; I guess times change.)
The big Iowa win of course belonged to Santorum, a religious conservative who curried the evangelical vote in Iowa and won with it much as Mike Huckabee did in 2008. Huckabee, of course, quickly lost ground in subsequent primaries. (Meanwhile, Santorum lost the vote of his nephew, who published an article explaining  why he’s supporting Ron Paul.) 
Ron Paul was in a tight race for first with Mitt Romney until only two days earlier. Of course, the difference in Paul and Santorum votes was less than 4,000 people, but still Paul’s last-minute drop needs analysis.
Here’s part of it. In 2008 at the national level the November Presidential vote broke down as follows for age: 
Per census data: Citizens 18-24 were the only age group increasing in turnout from 2004. Citizens between the ages of 45 to 64 saw their voting rates slightly decrease. Voting rates for citizens aged 25 to 44 and 65 years or older were statistically unchanged between 2004 and 2008. 2008 was the second straight presidential election year where young citizens significantly increased their voting rates. 
Obama did well among the 18-24 age voters, helping him win the general election. In Iowa, Paul polled first among 18-45 year olds. But looking at the voting distribution at the caucuses, only 31% of the voters were in the 18-45 age group. 68% were in the 45-older group. To the extent younger voters--who could easily vote for Paul over Obama in a general election but would never vote for Santorum over Obama--were under-represented in Iowa, Iowa downplays Paul’s strength, yet Paul still came in a close second after a tie for first. To put it another way: if the age distribution of the 2012 Iowa GOP vote was the same as the 2008 national vote, with nothing else changed, Paul would have come in first last night.
People are now asking whether Santorum has the organization, money, strength, etc. to win. These are the same questions asked of Mike Huckabee in 2008. He got 35% of the Iowa vote, yet he didn’t come close to winning. Neither will Santorum. This will become a two-man race: Romney and Paul. Fortunately, these are the two GOP candidates who do best against Obama. It’s turning, like 2010, into a choice between the GOP Establishment and the Tea Party.

Monday, December 26, 2011

Strassel’s Straddle

December 26, 2011

Kimberley Strassel writes the weekly Potomac Watch column for the Wall St. Journal. Her December 16th column contained her WSJ-obligatory “hit piece” on Congressman Ron Paul, who is gaining in the polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Her title, “Why Ron Paul Can’t Win,” said it all. . The term “ideological crank” was bandied about, and Strassel explained Paul “does himself in” when discussing foreign policy. He doesn’t support what Strassel, whose historical knowledge of foreign policy seems to begin in the 1940s, views as the “traditional” American role of world policeman and global-striding colossus. Such views, in Strassel’s opinion, cannot win in the Republican primaries. This creates a problem for Paul. But not only Paul, it seems...
In her very next column, 12/22/11,  “The GOP’s Message Problem,” Strassel discusses how the Republican candidates for their party’s Presidential nomination “are consistently failing to provide the sort of message that will resonate with those voters who will matter most in 2012.” Who exactly are these voters? Reporting on a Crossroads analysis of “18 in-depth focus groups in battleground states,” Strassel notes that Republicans are not reaching out to engage potential cross-over voters concerned about the federal debt, seen as completely out of control and evidence of a DC culture addicted to spending.
And Strassel has a point. Consider Congressman Paul Ryan’s proposed alternative budget, which doesn’t cut one cent. It merely increases government spending somewhat less rapidly than Barack Obama’s over the next decade. As pointed out by Keith Hennessey, among others, Ryan doesn’t move the federal budget from yearly deficits to yearly surpluses until 2040, almost 30 years from now. Strassel’s own WSJ calls that “Revolutionary” and candidate Mitt Romney initially refused to sign onto the Ryan Plan because increasing government spending slightly less fast than Barack Obama might be too extreme…
Well...there is ONE candidate who talks of shuttering FIVE cabinet departments and cutting $1 TRILLION in his FIRST YEAR in office. There IS one candidate who seriously discusses what that sort of cut implies: Not just cutting “waste, fraud, and abuse.” Rather, a fundamental re-assessment of what our government should do, including policing the world and filling prisons with peaceful drug users. How is that candidate doing among the very cross-over voters who so concern the Kimberley Strassel of December 22nd?
Quite well. According to the latest Public Policy Poll, Paul is winning in Iowa, 23% to Romney’s 20% and Gingrich’s 14%. His support is deeper and more dedicated. A greater number of Paul supporters indicate they will not switch. Most importantly as regards those swing voters so important to Barack Obama in 2008, Paul carries 33% of the youth vote (those under 45), and 35% of the quarter of voters who call themselves either Democrats or Independents. 
So combining her December 16th and 22nd columns, Kimberley Strassel’s analysis is that the GOP, excluding Paul, can’t connect with the key subset of the electorate needed to win in November, and that Paul himself is not acceptable to enough GOP voters. The only GOP candidate that might take away key voting blocks from Barack Obama in November can’t, per Strassel, win the GOP nomination.
Against a generic Republican candidate, Barack Obama loses. Against each of the actual candidates, Obama wins, but Paul comes second closest to beating him (within 8% points; Romney is within 3%. These numbers are, of course, very fluid). We understand why Romney does well: he LOOKS Presidential. He is wealthy and successful, handsome and tall, speaks with confidence and sobriety, never saying anything that might get him in trouble. Just what the establishment thinks Americans want in their President. But why is Paul doing well? It can’t be the man himself. He IS somewhat crankish. He DOES tend to blather on a bit. How can HE possibly be doing so well. When you think about it, it MUST be his message.
In a rational world, this sort of thing would make establishment Republicans re-assess their aversion to Ron Paul. But in the WSJ’s worldview, nothing can allow re-thinking their “small limited government capable of policing the whole world” ideology. Nonetheless, they shouldn’t ignore the fact that, distorted and hysterically pilloried though it has been, Paul’s principled non-interventionism attracts support from the people actually fighting America’s wars. Paul receives more monetary contributions from US soldiers than all the other GOP candidates. As for traditional GOP voters, to judge by the applause he receives at the GOP debates he is gaining traction here as well. 
It would be tragic if Strassel were right, that the person best positioned to reach out to Americans sick of big government can’t win because he actually wants to cut big government.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Entrepreneurship...It's All In The Timing.

I got a great idea for a political bumper sticker, back in late October. Designed to appeal to supporters of all but one candidate, I was sure it would sell tens of thousands. It took me a month to get them back from the manufacturer... Here's an example of one for Rick Perry supporters:

Vote for Perry: More Able than Cain...

I think I'm going to have to remainder them...